European Union

In the first round of municipal elections on Sunday, the left-wing populist La France Insoumise (LFI) and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) gained ground in many areas. In the run-up to the second round on March 22, candidates are trying to form alliances in many municipalities, particularly between moderate left-wing parties and the controversial LFI.

International support has failed to keep pace with the growing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, thus creating a financing gap between their needs and available resources. The recent US withdrawal from funding development and humanitarian programmes has only compounded this financing gap which has existed for more than a decade.
In response to this, the international community – through Agenda 2030, the Grand Bargain, the 2016 New York Declaration, and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) – has advocated for a shift from seeing refugees as emergencies to integrating them into the host countries’ developmental agenda. In Kenya, these policy proposals are most recently being implemented through the Shirika Plan, the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model, and development plans of refugee-hosting counties such as Turkana and Garissa. First, the Shirika Plan is a government-led initiative that was proclaimed in 2023 to realise the socio-economic inclusion of refugees within the local context in line with the progressive provisions of the Refugee Act of 2021. Implementation of this policy is yet to begin as it is pegged on elusive donor funding. Second, the DA model is led by the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme (WFP) and is aligned with the Shirika Plan. The preparatory activities for DA were undertaken throughout 2024 and implementation commenced in August 2025. DA seeks to increase refugee self-reliance through livelihood interventions and providing support based on the specific needs and capabilities of different refugee households as opposed to the previous blanket support that was based on refugee registration status. However, implementation has so far only focussed on reducing aid, without corresponding investment in self-reliance measures.
DA and the Shirika Plan are framed in government and international circles as solutions for addressing funding shortfalls and fostering refugee integration by supporting self-reliance. However, there has been little progress in enhancing refugee self-reliance. At the same time, aid cuts are implemented based on a needs-categorisation of refugee households that proceeds without adequate background information. The lack of alternative livelihoods has exacerbated vulnerabilities and has sparked protests in refugee camps. Emerging evidence points to negative coping mechanisms, including higher school drop-out rates; reported cases of youths joining criminal religious groups; increased conflicts at family level; and rising cases of women becoming sex workers. This Policy Brief highlights the emerging ramifications of implementing DA that is anchored in the provisions contained in the Shirika Plan. The Brief also goes further to suggest recommendations for action to the government of Kenya and the international community.
Key policy messages:
• There is a need to enhance synergy between UNHCR and the Kenyan government such that the state implements the Shirika Plan alongside DA without premising its implementation on donor aid.
• UNHCR needs to obtain more extensive household economic data and involve refugees in deciding who is most vulnerable to more accurately disaggregate refugee households into appropriate categories.
• The Kenyan government and international actors need to closely monitor and address potential nega-tive implications of implementing DA and the Shirika Plan.

Fred Ikanda is a Senior Lecturer in the department of Sociology and Anthropology, Maseno University, Kenya, and associated researcher at IDOS.
Michael Owiso is Director, Odera Akang’o Campus, and Dean, School of Development and Strategic Studies, Maseno University, Kenya, as well as associated researcher at IDOS.

Some 50,000 people are told to flee their homes as the army warns of a huge military offensive in Jonglei state.

Written by Ralf Drachenberg, Annastiina Papunen and Astrid Worum.

The main aims will now be to overcome the two-country veto on the Ukraine loan, and to define a common approach to a rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East – notably to prevent escalation, promote a diplomatic path to end the crisis and provide support to partner countries in the region, while addressing the possible impact on global energy security. In that context, the European Council will discuss the Middle East as well as multilateralism with the UN Secretary General, António Guterres. However, despite a probable change of focus, competitiveness will feature prominently in the European Council conclusions and provide a high degree of detail, probably going beyond the EU leaders’ role of setting the general priorities. Other topics on the agenda are the next multiannual financial framework (MFF), European security and defence, and migration, which, due to time constraints, are expected to trigger less discussion. Following the European Council meeting, EU leaders will convene for a Euro Summit focusing on the economic situation in the EU, the international role of the euro and the savings and investment union.

1. General

As usual, European political parties will hold pre-summit meetings with their respective affiliated EU leaders. Additionally, a growing group of ‘like-minded’ countries on migration will meet prior to the start of the meeting. Following a similar pattern, a new group of around 20 EU leaders, which first met ahead of the informal retreat of 12 February 2026, had a videoconference on 10 March to discuss rising energy prices and competitiveness. The European Council itself will start with the address by the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola. This meeting will be the first for the new Dutch Prime Minister, Rob Jetten, and for Andrey Gyurov, the caretaker Prime Minister of Bulgaria.

2. European Council meeting Ukraine

A central topic for discussion at this European Council will be the enactment of the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, already agreed upon in December 2025, and the adoption of the 20th sanctions package against Russia. Following an exchange of views with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, EU leaders will attempt to persuade the prime ministers of Hungary, Viktor Orbán and Slovakia, Robert Fico to lift their veto on the EU loan. To enable the urgently needed funding for Ukraine to be disbursed, several pieces of legislation, already signed off in Parliament, need to be adopted: 1) a regulation establishing the loan; 2) an amendment to the Ukraine Facility; and 3) a revision to the MFF, which requires a unanimous decision. In a letter to European Council President António Costa, Orbán indicated that his country would oppose the loan until the Druzhba pipeline, which provides Hungary and Slovakia with Russian crude oil and which was damaged by Russian air strikes, is operational again – a potentially dangerous and lengthy process.

Amid criticism of the two countries’ behaviour, which according to Costa does not comply with the principle of sincere cooperation, temporary alternatives were put forward, such as the Adriatic pipeline, an option rejected by Hungary and Slovakia, who cited high prices. Ahead of the meeting, attempts will be made to find a solution, notably in the context of the Paris Nuclear Energy Summit, while Nordic and Baltic countries are considering bilateral loans (not requiring EU approval) to cover Ukraine’s needs until May. Oil supply was also the justification given for vetoing the 20th sanctions package, which was due to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Moreover, considering Ukraine’s increased financial needs, now estimated at €135 billion for 2026‑2027, EU leaders are likely to call on non-EU partners to cover an additional €30 billion – beyond the €15 billion secured from Western partners. With some fearing that the war in Iran could distract attention from Ukraine, EU leaders are expected to reiterate their unwavering support to the war-torn country – as did the presidents of the three EU institutions in a joint declaration adopted on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion. They are likely to stress the need to ensure that the country has all the necessary military and financial means to continue fighting the aggressor.

Middle East

The concerning developments in Iran, which threaten the stability of the entire Middle East region, as well as the global implications of the conflict in Iran, are likely to be the focus of EU leaders’ attention. Leaders will probably attempt to develop a unified approach beyond the statement issued on behalf of the EU by the High Representative/Vice President, Kaja Kallas, on 1 March, and reaffirm their commitment to dialogue and to a diplomatic path to end the crisis.

Although in contact with countries in the region from day one, the Union has struggled to find a coordinated EU position since the joint Israeli-US attack on Iran on 28 February. Assessments of the situation have varied widely from one Member State to another. Some have criticised Israel and the US for breaching international law, notably Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who called the military intervention ‘unjustified and dangerous‘, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who stated that the ‘military operations in Iran were conducted outside international law’. Others have shown reluctance to criticise the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz not wanting ‘to lecture our allies’. Even Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who released a joint statement on the day of the joint attack, pointing to the ‘extensive sanctions [adopted by the EU] in response to the actions of Iran’s murderous regime and the Revolutionary Guards’, were, according to some observers, said to be conveying differing messages. In a speech on 6 March, Costa indirectly denounced the joint attacks, stating that, even if Iran ‘bears responsibility for the root causes, … unilateralism can never be the path forward’, while von der Leyen was criticised for stating that a ‘credible transition in Iran is urgently needed’, which hints at regime change and could be understood as approval of the US‑Israeli attacks.

However, the extent of Iran’s response – with strikes on neighbouring countries, ‘an unjustifiable violation of their sovereignty’, drones targeting a military base in Cyprus, an EU Member State, and strikes imperilling critical supply chains and energy infrastructure across the Gulf – has highlighted how closely the EU’s security and interests are linked to the region. According to the Cyprus EU Council Presidency, the only way for the EU to address its ‘long-lasting concerns regarding Iran’, is by: 1) preventing the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon; and 2) ending its destabilising activities in the region. To that end, the European Council will aim to revive the diplomatic path to end the crisis and initiate ‘a collective effort, including through sanctions’, to achieve its objectives.

As Costa and von der Leyen did after a videoconference with Middle East Leaders, the European Council is likely to condemn in the strongest terms the ‘indiscriminate attacks by Iran against the countries of the region’, and convey its ‘full solidarity with the people of the region’. They will most certainly also express their ‘deep concern about the consequences of the regional crisis on Lebanon’, which could have a severe impact on civilians, triggering large-scale displacement as Israel is launching an extended military campaign against Hezbollah and has refused to halt its offensive to hold talks. In that context, von der Leyen announced the mobilisation of ReliefEU stocks to support some 130 000 persons in Lebanon, with a first flight on 10 March.

In the meantime, European countries have initiated elements of response and solidarity, individually or jointly. For instance, the E3 countries (France, Germany, and the UK) adopted a joint statement, in which they pledge to ‘work together with the U.S. and allies’ to ‘take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially by enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source’. EU Member States have also coordinated their action at several levels. First, by cooperating on the repatriation of their citizens stranded in the Middle East. Nineteen Member States have activated the rescEU mechanism under the European Civil Protection Mechanism. Second, by dispatching air and naval resources to protect Cyprus, with France, Greece, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands sending vessels. Third, by coordinating the dispatch of military resources to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, while France has taken the lead in building a coalition to secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the EU has announced a reinforcement of its maritime defensive operations ASPIDES and ATALANTA. Originally launched to protect commercial vessels from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis, the operations will now take on a new scope, as confirmed by Costa and von der Leyen.

Finally, the potential consequences on global energy security will be at the centre of discussions. As oil prices surged over US$119 a barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2022 (even if they have stabilised since), this point could be closely linked to the EU competitiveness agenda point (see below). Despite von der Leyen’s message stating that ‘Today, Europe’s energy system is cleaner, much more diverse – and much more stable than a few years ago’, and EU Member States indicating that they saw no immediate risk to supply from the crisis, there are fears that the Iran war could trigger a new energy crisis, raise energy prices and increase inflation. So much so, that G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting and the International Energy Agency’s 32 members agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to avoid shortages. Even if the Commission claims that the storage capacity remains stable, some sources point to gas storage levels standing at only 30 %, noting that the upcoming period is crucial for filling up for next winter.

Competitiveness and the single market

‘We are making 2026 the year of European competitiveness’, Costa stated, ‘just as we made 2025 the year of European defence’. Discussions on ways of delivering on this ambition will build heavily on the outcome of the informal competitiveness retreat in Alden Biesen, Belgium, on 12 February 2026. As the informal retreat did not produce conclusions, the results are expected to be formally turned into concrete decisions in the March conclusions.

One of the key instruments will be the ‘one Europe, one market agenda’, which the European Council is expected to launch to further integrate the single market in all its four freedoms. In order to deliver by the end of 2027, the agenda will be accompanied by a ‘one Europe, one market roadmap and action plan’ to be presented by the Commission, with clear goals and timelines. It was suggested that the roadmap be endorsed by the three institutions to showcase the political momentum and sense of urgency behind the project. The priority areas are expected to be: 1) completion of the single market; 2) simplification and reduction of red tape; 3) affordable energy prices and energy union by 2030; 4) industrial renewal and reduced dependencies; 5) a savings and investment union.

Several notable calls for action can be expected at the meeting. EU leaders are likely to discuss the EU-wide legal framework for companies, the 28th regime, due to be issued by the Commission on 18 March, and to call on the co-legislators to adopt the proposal by the end of 2026. They are expected to ask the Commission to conduct an in-depth review of the EU acquis and withdraw outdated provisions. As a contribution to the effort, Finland has sent a letter to the Commission listing possible ways of simplifying more than 40 pieces of EU legislation. EU leaders are also likely to ask the Commission to identify and map dependencies in strategic sectors. On investment, the European Council could mention the digital euro, and call for the co-legislators to conclude their work by the end of 2026.

With the energy transition and energy affordability very high on the EU leaders’ agenda, especially in the current volatile situation, some countries are pushing for a stronger answer to the crisis. While the European Council is expected to call for the swift implementation of the Energy Union 2030 agenda, it will also discuss ways of immediately alleviating the impact of energy prices on businesses and citizens, as outlined in the new citizens’ energy package. Addressing Parliament, von der Leyen mentioned: 1) the options being explored to reduce the impact of gas prices on electricity prices, such as State aid measures, subsidies or even caps on gas prices; 2) the need to improve the productivity of grids to allow more renewables to access them; 3) the room for action on taxes and levies on energy, which is a national competence; and 4) possible modernisation of the ETS.

Next multiannual financial framework

Following a ‘guiding discussion’ in March 2025 and an MFF ‘stocktaking’ in December 2025, EU leaders will have a brief discussion on the ‘horizontal issues’ of the next MFF to provide guidelines to the Council presidency for the preparation of the negotiating package, with indicative figures due by June 2026. Three aspects are likely to be addressed: 1) the MFF’s contribution to EU competitiveness; 2) the funding of EU ambitions; and 3) the new governance framework. The Leaders’ Agenda envisages an MFF agenda point at all four regular European Council meetings in 2026, with the MFF being the exclusive topic at the 26-27 November special meeting.

European defence and security

The European Council is expected to take stock of progress on the European defence readiness 2030 objectives, and possibly invite the Member States to ensure that concrete capability projects can be launched in the coming months. Moreover, EU leaders could invite the Council to update the 2022 threat assessment, based on a 360° analysis of threats to be prepared by the HR/VP.

Migration

EU leaders will take stock of the implementation of its previous conclusions on migration, with a letter from von der Leyen expected to inform the discussions. Leaders are likely to reiterate their call for Member States and EU institutions to intensify work on all strands of the EU’s approach to migration, notably on the external dimension and on comprehensive partnerships. They could also acknowledge the recent agreement in the Council on the EU-wide list of safe countries, or comment on possible migration waves resulting from the situation in the Middle East.

3. Euro Summit

The first Euro Summit meeting in 2026 is expected to focus on economic developments in the EU, the international role of the euro, and the savings and investment union. Ahead of the meeting, presidents Costa and von der Leyen met the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, and the new Eurogroup President, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, the Greek Minister of Economy and Finance, to prepare discussions. Following the Eurogroup meeting on 9 March, Pierrakakis sent a letter to Costa bringing important points to the attention of the Euro Summit.

Read this briefing on ‘Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders, 19-20 March 2026‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

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